ACB News “Australia Finance Online” May 22 News A while ago, the Sino-US trade war filled the smoke, leaving the global economy shrouded in the shadows. How Sino-U.S. bilateral economic and trade patterns have evolved has become the hottest spotlight in the world. People are deeply concerned about the potential adverse impact on the world that the two major economies may be caught in a trade war and hope that China and the United States can resolve trade disputes rationally. Do not fight trade war.
In the midst of the dispute between China and the United States, Australia and China have also experienced many troubles and frictions. The relationship between the two countries has cooled to the lowest point in recent years.
China and the United States issued a joint communiqué to stop the trade war
However, with the change in the situation, China and the United States have, after painstaking discussions and negotiations, finally reached a positive attitude and constructive thinking and achieved fruitful results of reconciliation. U.S. Treasury Secretary Mukuchin said on the 20th that the United States and China have reached an agreement on the framework issue and agreed to suspend the trade war. Munuchin also said that the U.S.-China economic and trade consultations have made significant progress and both sides will continue to maintain consultations on economic and trade issues. According to Xi Jinping’s special envoy, Vice-Premier Liu He of the State Council disclosed that the biggest achievement of the Sino-US economic and trade consultations was that the two sides reached a consensus, did not fight a trade war, and stopped levying tariffs on each other.
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The Sino-U.S. joint communique is considered to be a constructive outcome of negotiations. The constructive performance of both parties is to treat disputes with a rational attitude and sincerely resolve conflicts. The United States has agreed to reduce the U.S. trade deficit with China by actively expanding exports to China rather than passively suppressing Chinese exports. Correspondingly, the Chinese side has taken the initiative to open up the market and greatly increased the purchase of goods and services from the United States to reduce the surplus with the United States. In addition, both parties reached consensus on the protection of intellectual property rights and encouraged two-way investment.
This is a win-win result that has been achieved through hard work.
There are both positive and negative aspects in everything, and there are both positive and negative methods in everything. In recent years, with the increase of China’s strength, there has been a marked increase in interest conflicts and different demands between China and the United States, but the common interests, mutual dependence and mutual cooperation between the two countries have also increased. China and the United States are at different stages of development, with different national conditions and distinct industrial complementarities. These characteristics essentially provide unlimited opportunities for mutual benefit and cooperation and win-win cooperation between the two countries. The US$2.5 billion trade volume between China and the United States since the establishment of diplomatic relations in 1979 has jumped to the current scale of 580 billion U.S. dollars, and it has intuitively expressed a simple truth: Economic and trade cooperation benefit the two peoples and is in the interests of the two countries.
Looking ahead, as the two major engines of world economic growth, the two largest markets, China and the United States can ride each other and walk hand in hand to inject more positive energy into world economic growth.
The successful resolution of disagreements between China and the United States has set an example for the world: This cease-and-trade war also reflects the fact that the leaders of the two countries can look far ahead at a crucial moment, grasp the big picture, and lead the right direction. If you fight, you lose money and cooperation will win. It is wise for China and the United States to choose to negotiate and negotiate trade disputes. Both sides will benefit. The cooperation between these two world powers is responsible for the well-being of both peoples and is also responsible for the prospects of world economic development. The consensus reached in the Sino-US trade negotiations is also conducive to the promotion of global multilateral trade, which is what the world expects.
The success of the negotiations shows that both parties have come up with sincere attitudes to improve economic and trade relations. Through this expression of appeal, negotiation and communication have also deepened mutual understanding of each other. China and the United States have not evaded difficulties, but have tried to find ways to narrow their differences and eventually reach consensus. Through hard work, the two countries have succeeded in returning the economic and trade relations that are out of control risks to the right track, dealing with disagreements and frictions with a forward-looking vision, and seeking a point of interest convergence with a big cake. This successful case has set a new model for all countries in the world to resolve various trade disputes in the future and has set a good example.
What impact does Sino-American settlement have on other countries?
China is a big market full of opportunities. The pragmatism of the United States is worthy of study in other countries: From the time when trade wars began to quietly put down swords and guns and choose trade cooperation, this reflected the rationality and wisdom of American politicians, governments, think tanks, and business circles. Today, China is the largest market in the world except the United States. In the near future, China will even surpass the size of the US market. China will add another 850 million middle class before 2030. Who can ignore such a presence? The elites in the United States have seen this strength and opportunity prospects. Not long ago, President Xi Jinping pledged at the “Boao Forum for Asia” that the door to China’s opening up will only get bigger and bigger, and announced that it will greatly ease market access, create a more attractive investment environment, and strengthen intellectual property protection. Therefore, each country should study the underlying causes of US policy choices and face up to opportunities in China so as to formulate a China policy in line with its own national interests. We call on Australia to further strengthen its forward-looking policy toward China.
If China must increase its purchases to the United States in order to narrow the surplus, whose business will be affected? Because the United States has a large deficit with China’s trade, China must increase its import of the United States to narrow this deficit. However, assuming that China’s imports are not unlimited, the increase in China’s imports to the United States must be accompanied by a decrease in imports from other countries. This is a problem that all Chinese trading partners are now facing. The next step is to study how to ensure that China does not reduce the amount of imports to its own country, and the Cold War status with China does not help to fight for practical benefits in this regard.
After the surplus between China and the United States shrinks, countries that originally had a surplus with China may face pressure to reduce the surplus. Before the trade war, China may not care much about its significant surplus to other countries because of its huge trade surplus with the United States. For this reason, China can now tolerate a trade surplus with more than 40 countries in the world, including Australia. After China and the United States have improved their trade balance, China must reduce the deficit from other countries to make up for it, and there is no way to balance the balance of accounts. This means that those countries that currently have surpluses with China must maintain their business with China and must increase their imports from China or reduce their exports to China, just as the United States now demands China. As for which country’s imports will fall, which country’s purchases will be reduced, this is China’s choice. At that time, I’m afraid that the relationship between the two is good, and the conditions for obtaining it are looser, just as the United States now has a more favorable attitude toward its allies.
The political or security ally may be a trader, and vice versa. The trade war was earth-shattering, but the smoke cleared and the political rivals of China and the US shook hands and made peace, returning to the mall to make money as friends. However, we also see the other side of things. According to the “Sydney Morning Herald” report, U.S. ambassador to China Terry Blandstad said on the 15th that Trump hopes that the U.S. will export food to China “with a substantial increase” and increase the export of liquefied natural gas. Food and liquefied natural gas are Australia’s key export commodities to China, and many Australian agricultural products enjoy preferential low-tariff treatment. Therefore, increased exports of US food and natural gas to China may become competitors of Australia and directly affect Australian exports to China.
According to the US Department of Commerce’s website, Ross said that China can “easily” reduce the U.S. trade deficit with China. “As long as China buys more of our U.S. products at 1.5 trillion U.S. dollars per year, it will buy less from China. The products of those free trade partners will be fine.”
While China and the United States stopped their trade war, the Cold War climate between China and Australia is also warming up.
According to media reports, Australian Prime Minister Turnbull announced earlier that he will visit China later this year. Prime Minister Turnbull said that Australia has more than one million ethnic Chinese citizens of his own descent, including his own two grandchildren. He said that the two countries have very close relationships at all levels and the two countries have “a common destiny.”
Foreign Minister Bi Xiaopu also indicated that he plans to visit China again this year and looks forward to meeting with Chinese Foreign Minister Wang Yi. Bi Xiaopu said that China’s achievements in its 40 years of reform and opening up are impressive. China has achieved the most remarkable economic development in modern history and Australia is proud to participate in it. It is in the Australian national interest to further strengthen economic and trade cooperation with China.
Australian Trade Minister Steven Bonham was visiting Shanghai last week. As the first Australian high-level leader to visit China this year, Qiao Bo was placed on the high hopes of “melting ice” for the Sino-Australian tension that has fallen to the freezing point. In Shanghai, Qiao Bo praised China as a “real global giant.” The Chinese are said not to profit at the expense of Australians. He also affirmed the “Belt and Road Initiative” and called for “If we find ourselves in the rough waters, we should go hand in hand and help each other and find a way to the other side of the sea.” The Australian Broadcasting Corporation commented that Qiaobo conveyed a very clear message to the Chinese that Australia intends to repair relations with China.
This is a rational change in the direction of the wind and it is commendable. What is behind this turn is that the tension between political and diplomatic relations between Australia and China has been extended to economic and trade relations, and the damage of the Cold War has begun to appear, thus increasing the sense of urgency to resolve differences.
Sino-Australian tensions have damaged the economic and trade sector: Nick Beasley, an expert in international relations at La Trobe University in Australia, points out that from the wine to the tourism and agricultural products, the negative influence of the “anti-China” tendencies of the Australian government to various fields is Gradually emerged. The “Sydney Morning Herald” website reported on the 16th that Australian exporters were worried that the Sino-Australian diplomatic freeze would cause them to lose a lot of opportunities. The Australian political sector has also seen the economic losses caused by the recession in Sino-Australian relations.
Australian export companies, which are at the forefront of the storm, said that in recent months, Australian exports to China have faced stricter scrutiny at China Customs, and the clearance of products has been slow.
Just the same day that Qiaobo arrived in Shanghai, Australia’s affluent wine shipments to China were facing delays in customs clearance. Qiao Bo had to temporarily mobilize a diplomatic team to resolve the matter. Because of the tension between China and Australia, the share price of the world’s largest wine maker fell sharply. The Australian Meat Industry Council said that according to an agreement signed between Australia and China, Australia will export more than three million Australian dollars of beef and mutton to China each year. However, the implementation of the agreement was repeatedly delayed.
Although major Australian companies have great expectations for this visit to Qiaobo, they hope that through the speech of the trade minister, they can ease the tension in bilateral trade. However, Joe Bo in Shanghai admitted that since he was not invited to Beijing to meet with senior officials of the Chinese government, the issue of trade that he could solve was limited.
Recently, the government’s policy orientation has caused many criticisms from all walks of life. Earlier, the former Chinese ambassador to China, Rui Jirui, criticized the government’s continuous and self-contradictory China policy. The article points out that on the one hand, economic and trade ties with China have been swift, and on the other hand, the stimulating remarks of the Australian government have angered Beijing. Former Prime Minister Kevin Rudd also called on Australia to adopt a middle-of-line China policy.
Unlike the competitive relationship between China and the United States, China and Australia are more complementary to each other: Australia and China have different economic characteristics. The two countries are not in the same mass, and they should say there is no influence or strategic competition. More It is the potential for complementary cooperation. In addition, Australia has a high trade surplus with China.
China is Australia’s largest trading partner, the largest source of tourists, and the fifth largest source of direct investment. Just as Trade Minister Qiao Bo pointed out in Shanghai, the friendly relations between China and Australia have lasted for decades. Under the China-Australia Free Trade Agreement, both countries have become more prosperous. Growth in trade, tourism, and investment with China will create new jobs for Australia and will also be part of the Turnbull government’s plan to promote economic growth.
Doing business with friends first is a common business logic in the world: People engaged in sales believe this idea, and must first be friends with customers before they can get a customer’s business. At the mall, people first do business to friends, and no one wants to do business with people who are hostile to themselves.
Su Xiaohui, a Chinese scholar, said: “If someone wishes to take the express train of China’s development in economics and trade and at the same time insist on the ‘Cold War mentality’ in terms of political security, then it certainly will not work.” It is unlikely that there will be a political cold war and it will not be economically affected.
The tension between China and Australia a while ago has given a deep negative impression to Chinese netizens. Analysing the many online reviews of ordinary Chinese netizens on the Internet, one can feel that many of them are currently skeptical and cautious about Sino-Australian relations, including economic and trade exchanges. Intangible damage has actually been caused and it is difficult to eliminate in the short term.
The author understands that the contradiction between Australia’s unique security and defense needs and the need for economic development has brought political leaders the challenge of balancing various relationships. However, this is a special mission entrusted by the times. It is believed that the Australian government will eventually find its way in the direction best suited to the interests of the nation and to the well-being of the people.
There is no eternal struggle in the world, only eternal interests. If it can be said that all competitors like China and the United States can resolve disputes because of common interests, there will be more reasons for cooperation between China and Australia. Abandon the Cold War mentality, eliminate ideological prejudices, and discuss business, win-win, co-prosperity and sharing in business cooperation.
If you think of empathy, you will actually be connected. Only respect that can be exchanged for respect, if you are sincere, you will be able to win back your sincerity. As long as China and Australia are sincerely repairing and making unremitting efforts, even the thickest ice can melt.
The world has become a community and cannot return to the cold war. Win-win cooperation is the main theme
U.S. President Trump once made it clear during a meeting with Liu He, the special envoy of the Chinese president, that it is very important for the United States and China to maintain good relations of cooperation in the economic and trade field. Today, the economic and trade cooperation between China and the United States has now formed the pattern of the interests of “you have me and I have you”. The two countries are each other’s second largest trading partners. Compared with the beginning of the establishment of diplomatic relations 40 years ago, the scale of bilateral trade between the two countries increased by 232 times. The two sides can reach a consensus on “doing no trade war” because the trade war has not won a winner. The stable and healthy development of Sino-U.S. economic and trade relations is in the fundamental interest of the two peoples. In conformity with the expectations of the world, it will also bring about global momentum.
While we are in a period of change in the world’s pattern, we may have some pain but in the end everyone will adapt to each other. The Sino-US Joint Statement is a step in the right direction. However, trade smoke does not mean that Sino-U.S. economic and trade cooperation will be smooth sailing. Over the past few decades, China and the United States have established effective communication channels and dialogue platforms in various fields. This has played a key role in the control and divergences between the two countries and ensured that the bilateral relations do not deviate from the main channel of cooperation and win-win results. This has also led to this trade. The successful resolution of the war (this can also be a reference to Sino-Australian relations). In the future development of bilateral economic and trade cooperation, there will be conflict and conflict. However, if the two sides continue to maintain high-level communications, they will actively seek to resolve their respective economic and trade issues and face the new twists and turns in the development of bilateral relations in the future. We must persist in dialogue and properly handle it, instead of intensifying or even losing control in a confrontational manner. Then the peace that China and the United States will bring to the peoples of the two countries and the world will be peace, hope, prosperity, and prosperity. The same principle also applies to China-Australia relations.
Stopping the trade war is good news for Beijing and Washington, and its positive influence far exceeds that of the economy and trade. It is even better news for a world that is more and more connected.
It is also good news that the Cold War climate between China and Australia is bottoming out. Regarding the development of any relationship, the cold war, the vindictiveness, and the willful attitude will not have a constructive effect. The family relationship is the same, and the relationship between nations is also the same. This principle is true to China and the United States